More Thoughts On The Election

Back in February I wrote about my thoughts on the election at that point. It is funny how little has changed since then. John McCain has locked up the Republican nomination of course and it seems clear that Barak Obama will lock up the Democratic nomination unless something dramatically changes. Hillary Clinton is still in the race though and her chances depend on what happens with the delegations from Florida and Michigan.

As I sit here I still haven’t decided who to vote for in the general election. Among the three remaining candidates I believe that McCain is closest to me in terms of what I believe, followed by Clinton, and Obama. At the same time McCain is still keeping his distance from the more conservative elements in his party. I am interested to see who McCain chooses at his running mate. Would he go for someone with more conservative street credibility or try and get someone like Joe Lieberman to attempt to pull some crossover votes from the Democrats. As I look at each candidate at the beginning of May here is what I see.

Disclaimer: These are all simply based on my opinion. You may think I am way off in these thoughts.

John McCain 

 

Positives

• He’s been able to stay out of the fight between Clinton and Obama allowing him to prepare to take on the eventual Democratic nominee.
• McCain can still choose a running mate to either: A) Appeal to the more conservative elements of the Republican party. B) Go with someone with more crossover appeal.
• Has a demonstrated ability to work across party lines.

Negatives

• The war in Iraq hurts him. There are enough people who want the troops home to impact him when he has to run against Clinton and Obama.
• I think McCain’s age hurts him. What will his health be like in 4 years…8 years?
• McCain is also hurt due to guilt by association. Besides the war we have a downturn in the economy, oil and food prices spiking, and a mortgage "crisis." No matter if it is accurate or not the Republicans will get hurt by this.

Barak Obama

Positives

• He’s not "the same old thing." We have gone through almost 20 years of Bush’s and Clinton’s in the White House. While McCain also breaks that cycle, Obama is definitely far different than recent presidents.
• Obama is a dynamic speaker. Much like Reagan on the right, Obama has the ability to connect with people. I think this will help him against McCain in a general election.
• He should have the ability to get the younger voters out. Since he is so dynamic he should excite group that neither Clinton or McCain have the ability to reach.
• In my opinion, Obama also hasn’t gotten tied down into a large number of specifics in terms of his policies. I think at this point that helps him as once specifics come out some of his support will turn away and some undecided voters will want to look in a different direction.
• I think Obama will also be better off in the long run that the information about his minister came out when it did. For the moment it hurts him a little bit, but since voters have short memories most of the issue will have blown over by the general election.

Negatives

• I believe Obama’s foreign policy statements will hurt him. No matter if we should be in Iraq or not, I still think most Americans want us to have a strong military that is ready to defend our interests in the world.
• With the large number of negative events going on with the economy right now I would be a concerned about Obama’s ability to handle them.
• With the long fight to get the nomination (or at least get close to the nomination) I wonder if some of the shine has come off of Obama. Since his campaign has had to respond to and counter attack some of the accusations from the Clinton campaign I wonder if he will be able to see himself as a new kind of politician.

Hillary Clinton

Positives

• I still think the political machine the Clinton’s have will end up helping Hillary. If she can win the nomination, the campaign should be able to deliver a clear message to appeal to voters.
• Like her husband, Hillary Clinton has an ability to move to the middle while still pushing for left leaning policies.

Negatives

• The path that Clinton has to winning the nomination could really tarnish her. Since most scenarios have her having to win the nomination through back room politics at the convention this could greatly hurt her with the Obama supporters in the general election, especially if a interesting third party candidate comes along.
• The last 20 years of Bush’s and Clinton’s works against her as it seems like the public wants a change.
• Clinton brings a lot of baggage along with her into the general election. There is a significant amount of material the Republicans can use to their advantage.

Conclusion

I am still not convinced this election is a slam dunk for the Democrats. If they don’t get the nomination figured out and find a way to become unified after a nominee is chosen, McCain can come in and win the election. I would still give the Democrats the best chance of winning but they will need to find a way to come together. In any case you can say this has been a fascinating process to observe.